Palantir Valley Forge Grant Demo

AEGIS

Advanced Early-Warning & Geostrategic Intelligence System

Launch App → Learn More
50+
Countries Tracked
6
Index Components
7+
Years of Data
AI
Powered Analysis

Capabilities

What AEGIS Does

A global risk intelligence platform that tracks conflict escalation patterns, surfaces early-warning signals, and delivers AI-powered geopolitical analysis — before situations deteriorate.

📊
Escalation Index
A composite monthly index (0–100) built from six leading indicators — event frequency acceleration, explosions, strategic developments, civil unrest, and civilian targeting ratio. Separates intensity from acceleration to catch both sustained conflicts and newly escalating ones.
Leading Indicators
🌐
Interactive Map
A 3D globe and 2D map visualizing conflict hotspots globally. Click any data point to see a full breakdown of event types — battles, explosions, strategic developments, protests, riots, and civilian violence — with country-level aggregates.
Real-Time Data
⚡
AI Analysis
AI-generated country insights, trend interpretation, and comparative analysis — connecting index data to real-world events. Ask any question about a country's conflict profile and receive a specific, data-grounded answer.
Groq · Llama 3.1

Background

Built by a Student.
Serious by Design.

AEGIS was built independently by Alexander Armand-Blumberg, a high school student with a lifelong passion for defense policy, geopolitics, and security research. What started as a question — what signals precede a conflict escalating? — became a full-stack intelligence platform.

The name comes from Greek mythology. The Aegis was the divine shield of Athena — not just armor, but an instrument of foreknowledge and strategic clarity. That's the mission: give decision-makers clarity before the crisis arrives.

LinkedIn GitHub
Sample Index Output — Ukraine
Status ESCALATION FLAGGED
Smoothed Index 82.4
Trend Rising ▲
Peak Month Mar 2022
Flagged Months 24
Recorded Fatalities 41,203
Source: ACLED (acleddata.com)

How It Works

The Index Methodology

Six components, each normalized globally by percentile rank, combined into a single weighted score. The design separates intensity (how bad is it now?) from acceleration (is it getting worse?) — because both matter for different reasons.

30%
Raw Conflict Intensity
Battles + explosions in absolute terms. Ensures sustained wars like Ukraine score high even with flat month-over-month change.
20%
Event Frequency Acceleration
Month-over-month % change in total events. Catches countries entering or re-escalating conflict before intensity peaks.
20%
Explosions / Remote Violence
Shelling, airstrikes, drone strikes, IEDs. Precede ground battle fatalities — a leading signal of escalating military operations.
15%
Strategic Developments
Troop movements, HQ changes, ceasefire collapses, territorial control shifts. Signal intent and capability changes.
10%
Civil Unrest
Protests + riots. Social instability often precedes armed conflict escalation — a leading indicator of political breakdown.
5%
Civilian Targeting Ratio
Violence against civilians as a proportion of total violent events. A shift toward civilians signals strategic deterioration.

Get Started

See It Before It Happens.

AEGIS is live and free to use. Track any country's escalation index, explore the global conflict map, and generate AI-powered intelligence briefings in seconds.

Launch AEGIS → Contact